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LIVE ★ Tournament · Group Stage Proposed by · methman1.sol · 5d ago

Which group produces the biggest upset?

Group G 21% Group J 12% Group A 11% Group L 10% Group K 8%
3.4 SOL wagered Settles — Time left · 1mo 6d

All outcomes.

1
Group G0.72 SOL · 3 predictions
21%▲ 3.2% 4.8×
2
Group J0.40 SOL · 2 predictions
12%▲ 1.4% 8.3×
3
Group A0.36 SOL · 1 prediction
11%▲ 0.6% 9.1×
4
Group L0.35 SOL · 1 prediction
10%▲ 0.4% 10.0×
5
Group H0.27 SOL · 1 prediction
8%▼ 0.2% 12.5×
6
Group K0.28 SOL · 1 prediction
8%▲ 0.1% 12.5×
7
Group B0.18 SOL · 1 prediction
5%▼ 0.3% 20.0×
8
Group C0.17 SOL · 0 predictions
5%— 0.0% 20.0×
9
Group D0.17 SOL · 0 predictions
5%— 0.0% 20.0×
10
Group E0.16 SOL · 0 predictions
5%— 0.0% 20.0×
11
Group F0.16 SOL · 0 predictions
5%— 0.0% 20.0×
12
Group I0.10 SOL · 1 prediction
3%▼ 0.5% 33.3×

Discussion

2 comments
W
Connect your wallet to post. Be civil — degens, not jerks.
D
degen_oracle.sol2h ago
Group J is criminally underpriced at 12%. Two dark horses plus a fading favorite is the textbook upset setup — 8.3× pays for a coinflip.
M
methman1.solProposer5d ago
Proposed this one because the draw is wide open this year. No clear chalk — curious where the smart money lands once the group fixtures firm up.

This market resolves to the group that produces the biggest upset of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by WCINU's multi-source oracle once the tournament concludes.

"Biggest upset" is scored by FIFA world-ranking differential at kickoff versus the result, across every match in each group. The group containing the single most ranking-defying result wins. Ties are broken by aggregate ranking differential across the group's matches.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a group to register the biggest upset based on the rules of FIFA, it remains eligible only until the tournament's final match is settled.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, this market resolves to "Other". Settlement follows a 30-minute dispute window for VAR reversals and feed corrections. Not affiliated with FIFA.

D
degen_oracle.sol
Bought Group J · 8.3×
0.40 SOL
2m ago
7
7vXq…k2da
Bought Group G · 4.8×
0.25 SOL
18m ago
M
maple_stan.sol
Sold Group A · 9.1×
0.12 SOL
1h ago
W
whale_2k.sol
Bought Group G · 5.1×
0.72 SOL
3h ago
C
clutch_fan.sol
Bought Group L · 10.0×
0.18 SOL
5h ago
1
W
whale_2k.sol
Group G
0.72 SOL
21% of pool
2
D
degen_oracle.sol
Group J
0.40 SOL
12% of pool
3
G
goldenboot.sol
Group A
0.36 SOL
11% of pool
4
5
5kP-…9wRt
Group L
0.35 SOL
10% of pool
5
H
hodlzilla.sol
Group H
0.27 SOL
8% of pool

Market details.

12 groups, 13 ways to get cooked. Pick the one that flips its predicted leader the hardest — the group where the form book gets torn up the most.

Each group's matches are scored on how far the results defy the FIFA world rankings at kickoff. The group holding the single biggest ranking upset takes the market; ties break on aggregate ranking differential across the group's fixtures.

Settled by the multi-source oracle at the end of the group stage, after a 30-minute dispute window. Predictions can be cashed out early at the live multiplier any time before settlement.

★ AI Scout's hot take

Wcinu's call. Which group produces the biggest upset?

Group J is the play here. The textbook upset setup — a perceived favorite drawn alongside two outfits with tournament pedigree and momentum. The 8.3× multiplier pays for a coinflip, and the consensus money is parked on Group G at 21%, which historically is the worst place to sit when the question is literally asking for the unconventional. Confidence: Medium — the upset signal is real, but with 20 days left, liquidity will keep migrating before settlement.
Confidence Medium · 60%
not financial advice · the scout's a dog